The Goat Pageant Problem

There’s a thought experiment floating around, courtesy of Ragnar Blackwulf on Substack.

It goes something like this:

If a man is accused by a hundred people of… intimate goat enthusiasm… and he denies it.

Loudly. Repeatedly.

But also spends decades publicly hinting at how much he admires goats.

Hosts a goat beauty pageant.

Is best friends with a convicted international goat trafficker.

Appears in the “Goat Fucker Chronicles” 1 Million times.

And wishes fellow goat enthusiasts well in prison.

What are the odds?

At some point, the goat isn’t the issue. The pattern is.

This isn’t about livestock.

It’s about probability.

If it quacks like a duck, hosts the Duck Universe Pageant, flies on Duck Airlines with a known duck smuggler, appears in the Duck Files thousands of times, and keeps saying, “I barely know ducks, except the best ducks,” then statistically speaking, we’re not dealing with a casual duck observer.

We’re dealing with a duck situation.

The Epstein Files

Let’s drop the goats before PETA kicks down the door.

The actual issue is simple:

full disclosure.

The so-called Epstein files remain partially sealed, partially redacted, partially “whoops, we lost that server,” and partially weaponized by whichever political faction wants to shout the loudest that week.

Transparency should not be partisan.

If powerful people were involved in criminal networks, exploitation, trafficking, coercion, whatever flavor of rot was happening there, the public has a right to know who was connected and how.

Not because of memes.

Not because of revenge.

Because power without accountability rots everything around it.

And here’s the thing that should bother everyone, regardless of political tribe:

If someone is innocent, full disclosure clears them.

If someone is guilty, full disclosure exposes them.

The only people afraid of sunlight are the ones who burn in it.

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The Statistical Comedy of Denial

There’s a weird phenomenon in politics where the more aggressively someone denies something, the more they accidentally advertise it.

“I barely knew him.” “I was never there.” “That photo is fake.” “Okay, I was there once.” “Okay, twice.” “But only for goat judging purposes.”

It becomes less about truth and more about exhausting the audience.

And that’s the strategy:

overwhelm, distract, move on.

Meanwhile the files sit in a drawer like a horror movie prop no one wants to open because it might reveal that half the cast is compromised.

When elites protect elites, trust collapses.

When justice is selective, cynicism wins.

When files stay hidden, conspiracy culture fills the gap.

And conspiracy culture is what happens when transparency fails.

The goats become symbols because the facts aren’t available.

Full disclosure on the Epstein files isn’t a left-wing demand. It isn’t a right-wing demand.

It’s a basic hygiene demand.

If there was a global trafficking ring involving wealthy, connected people, the public deserves the truth.

All of it.

No redactions for VIP status.

Otherwise, the goat pageant metaphor just keeps aging better.

And honestly, that’s not great for anyone.

Except the goats.